Explore, Enjoy and Protect the Planet
April 17, 2015 : IN THIS ISSUE
Climate | Clean Energy |
By Grace McRae, Polling & Research Strategist |
New interactive mapping tool offers a look into local climate attitudes
Have you ever wondered how opinions in your county or congressional district compare with the national polling data on climate disruption? For the first time ever, you can turn to an online tool to find out.
Last week, Yale University and Utah State University unveiled a new interactive mapping tool that estimates climate opinions and policy support in all 50 states, 435 U.S. congressional districts, and more than 3,000 counties across the country. The survey data offer important insights into the geographic distribution of Americans' opinions on climate disruption and policies to combat it. Some of the maps show a country united, while others tell a different story.
Researchers are careful to point out that the mapped results are estimates of public opinion from a statistical model, rather than exact measurements from surveys conducted in every single county and congressional district (which would be "prohibitively expensive"). The statistical model developed by Yale and Utah State used data from more than a dozen national polls conducted by Yale between 2008 and 2013 (totaling more than 13,000 responses) and demographic and geographic population characteristics. To validate the model, the research team conducted separate surveys in four states and two cities, and found the estimates were within three percentage points of the independent surveys at the state level and four percentage points at the city level. The methods behind the model are detailed in the latest issue of the journal Nature Climate Change.
For example, 63% of adults across the country believe that "global warming" is happening. And as you can see from the map below, virtually every congressional district is shaded yellow, orange, or red, representing that at least 50% of adults in each district believe that the globe is warming. The county-level map shows similar consistency, although a handful of light-blue districts appear (representing belief between 45% and 50%).
Far fewer Americans are aware of the scientific consensus about climate disruption. As we know, 97% of climate scientists agree it is happening and is mostly caused by human activity. But nationally, just 41% of adults believe that "most scientists" think that "global warming" is happening, compared with 34% who think there is a lot of disagreement. As you can see in the map below, a lot of skepticism is found in the Midwest and South.
Nationally, 52% of adults say they are worried about "global warming." But this national statistic does not describe the significant variation across the country and within many states that you can see in the following graph. Concern ranges from an estimated 38% in Pickett County, Tennessee, to a high of 74% in Washington, D.C. There is a lot of variation within many states at both county and district levels (e.g., Texas).
The good news is that most of America is united in support for important policies to combat climate disruption, including clean energy and regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant. Researchers at Yale and Utah State report that 77% of adults nationwide support "funding research into renewable energy sources." Support is over 70% in virtually every congressional district and over 60% in every county. There is greater geographic variation in support for "regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant." Nationally, 74% of adults support the policy. At a county-level, support ranges from an estimated 59% in Platte County, Wyoming to a high of 88% in Washington, D.C.
It is important to note that support is slightly lower for "setting strict limits" on carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants, at 63% nationally. But even with the phrase "strict limits," researchers estimate that there is majority support in every state except for Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia.
It is interesting to compare state and district-level public opinion estimates with the voting history of their elected officials. Researchers at Yale University offer the first of such comparisons. They have developed a chart that compares public opinion in each state with U.S. Senator's votes on a January 2015 amendment sponsored by Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) stating that: "it is the sense of Congress that (1) climate change is real; and (2) human activity significantly contributes to climate change." As you can see in this chart, researchers concluded that U.S. senators were more likely to vote "Yea" on the Schatz amendment if they represented states where a majority of people thinks that climate disruption is at least partially caused by human activity. Conversely, U.S. senators from states where the public is evenly split or where slightly more people think it is not happening (or is due to natural causes) were more likely to vote "Nay." While this correlation does not prove causation, it does have important implications for environmental advocates.
Yale and Utah State developed this model using surveys of more than 13,000 adults nationwide. Based on state- and city-level surveys used to validate the model, researchers estimate that the margin of error is within +/-3.0% points at the state level and +/-8.0% points at the county level.
TAKEAWAY: These maps show us that public attitudes about climate and energy issues vary significantly across the country and within states. A lot of the action to reduce carbon pollution and prepare for the effects of climate disruption is happening at the state and local levels of government, and this tool provides insight into public support for these actions. And while the maps provide estimates of public opinion (not raw data), this tool could have many applications here at the Sierra Club. For example, it may be easier to find allies and potential climate activists in places where climate concern and clean energy support are particularly high. I encourage you to explore this tool yourself. How do opinions in your own county or congressional district compare with those in the rest of the state and the country? And what does this mean for your work? |
When purchasing clean-energy solutions, homeowners say “saving money” is their top motivation (Zogby)
While the country may be divided on many issues, new survey data suggest that the majority of U.S. homeowners are united in their support for using clean, renewable energy in their homes and as a country. Nearly eight-in-ten American homeowners (87%) say renewable energy is important to "America's energy future," according to a new national survey conducted by Zogby Analytics on behalf of SolarCity and Clean Edge. When asked how they rank the importance of specific clean energy sources and fossil fuels, homeowners rank solar and wind power as most critical (with 50% and 45% of homeowners selecting it in their top three, respectively). This compares with just 8% that select coal. Natural gas and energy efficiency rank third and fourth after solar and wind (with 33% and 25%, respectively). And while support for solar and wind is high across all demographic groups, support for natural gas declines significantly with younger homeowners. Two-in-five homeowners over 70 years old (43%) rank natural gas in their top three sources, compared with just 27% of those between 18 and 24 years old.
This survey also suggests that economic considerations trump environmental ones when homeowners consider clean energy products or services. An overwhelming 82% rank "saving money" as their top motivator when "making decisions around purchasing clean-energy products and services" (respondents were allowed to choose up to two), while "reducing my environmental impact" ranks a distant second at 34%. Echoing this sentiment, the most popular reason given for a respondent's likelihood to install solar was "saving on monthly electrical bills" (64%). That being said, environmental and sustainability considerations do matter to homeowners. Nearly two-in-three homeowners (65%) say they consider such factors when making "big-ticket" purchasing decisions (such as cars or homes).
Three-in-four survey respondents (75%) report having already taken at least "some actions" to reduce their impact on "greenhouse gas emissions." And while just 6% say they are likely to purchase a solar energy system for their home this year, 60% of homeowners say they would like to do so in the future. And a majority (61%) opposes electric utility companies being "able to charge an additional fee to solar powered homes and businesses." Just 24% support utilities being able to charge such a fee.
Zogby Analytics interviewed 1,400 homeowners nationwide between Jan. 20-22; margin of error is +/- 2.7% points at the 95% confidence interval.
TAKEAWAY: American homeowners overwhelming support clean energy and most would like to install solar someday. And while they do care about environmental and sustainability issues, homeowners' decisions to purchase clean-energy products and services appear to be primarily motivated by economics. This survey suggests that Americans are increasingly aware of the dropping cost of solar energy and the long-term financial security that it can bring to American households. Here at the Sierra Club, we must continue to communicate the personal (and national) financial benefits of transitioning to clean energy solutions. |
Climate disruption among top "issues to watch" in 2016 (ABC News/WaPo)
The 2016 presidential campaign has officially begun, and new survey analysis suggests that climate disruption may play a larger role than it has in previous races. Along with opposition to a no-tax pledge and openness to political compromise, support for "government action to address climate change" emerges as a top issue to watch in 2016 according to a new national poll from ABC News and the Washington Post. To assess each issue's potential to influence 2016 discussions, analysts at Langer Research developed the "PxP Score," which multiplies individuals' preferences for an issue with the importance they give to that position. Greater PxP scores (either positive or negative) indicate greater priority, differentiated preference, or both of these. Langer Research analyzed a range of potential issues, including the no-tax pledge, political compromise, federal health care law, negotiating with Iran, and a path to citizenship.
While desire for presidential action on climate disruption is low among Republicans, support is broad enough among Democrats and independents, and important enough to them, to give the issue potential influence (a PxP Score of 29, the highest for any issue tested). Overall, 59% of U.S. adults (note that the poll surveyed adults, not just voters) say they want the next president to be "someone who favors government action to address climate change," including 77% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and just 32% of Republicans. There is a sharp difference in importance rating depending on one's position: Among those who favor government action, 68% say it's an important issue. Among those who oppose action, just 39% rate it as important. Climate has an advantage over other top issues in preference and priority, which suggests that it may be a bigger priority this election cycle.
Langer Research interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide from March 26-29; margin of error is +/-3.5% points at the 95% confidence interval.
TAKEAWAY: While many agree that climate disruption did not play a big enough role during the 2014 elections, this new analysis suggests that the issue could take a prominent role during the upcoming presidential elections. As more Americans express concern about climate disruption, it will become more difficult for political candidates to deny the science or avoid conversations about climate. Here at the Sierra Club, we must both call on all presidential candidates to take a stance on climate and also help educate voters on which candidates are committed to climate action. |
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